More Experiments and Analysis – A Look at the New Cloud Features
23.11.2017 |Gavin Wilkinson
A host of new features were added to the AnyLogic Cloud recently. Among them, Monte Carlo 2nd Order, Variation, and Variation with Replication experiments. There are also enhancements to help you communicate your models more widely and clearly. Outputs now include Box Plot, 2D histogram, and 3D surface graphs. Let’s take a closer look at these new features.
In Public models find the Consumer Credit model, use search if you don’t see it immediately.
The Consumer Credit model describes the life-cycle of consumer credit applications, from both a branch office and online. The verification process involves three stages: scoring, personal review, and credit rating inspection. By using the results of multiple model runs, we can determine approval rates and find an optimal number of bank employees. In this model we’ll look at the new experiments and graphs.
Open the model and select Staff capacity variation from the sidebar (on a mobile device, you may need to click the sandwich icon in the top left to expand the sidebar). This experiment provides an example of Variation with Replication. It is worth noting that replication is not needed when you are certain your model is not significantly affected by randomness. Choose Variation, and not Variation with Replication, if this is the case when you are modeling. This time, we will use replication because we are unsure of the effect of variables such as the customer arrival rate.
We can vary the inputs and change the number of bank clerks and analysts by setting the range and step change. An experiment is run for every combination of both ranges, this provides the variation. Each combination can also be replicated, meaning the experiment runs several times with different seeds. A seed is a number which is used to determine randomly generated values such as the arrival rate of customers or the processing time of forms for an employee. By running each combination a number of times, you can test the robustness of the model to get greater confidence in the setup.
Set the parameters and the number of replications you would like and then hit Run in the top menu bar. Scrolling down will show you the progress of the experiment and then the output, where you will find more of the new features.
Both the new box plot and 3D surface graphs appear at the bottom of the experiment outputs. The box plots indicate the range of time applications were in the system. The data is split into quartiles, with 25% of the applications in each. The line within the box marks the median, 50% of the applications took less than this time and fall between it and the lower line outside of the box (the lower whisker). Outliers may be marked as points.
The 3D surface graphs allow us to see the interaction of two variables. For example, this scenario shows the number of abandoned applications is lowest when there are four bank clerks and five analysts (see the blue 3D surface graph in the lower left).