Forecasting the Human Resources Demand in the Russian Economy

IBS Group, the leading software developer in Central and Eastern Europe, was approached by the Ministry of Education and Science of Russia to conduct the project, “Development of an Analytical System for Forecasting the Demand in Skilled Professionals in Russia’s Economy.” The aim of the project was to create an analytical system, which could help the Ministry plan for the subsidization of higher education from the federal budget.

About the project:

The key to modernizing the educational system is to improve its management in several ways. This could include forecasting the demand for skilled professionals in the economy of the country, and subsidizing students’ education in the fields where specialists are in high demand.

This would provide employers with qualified human resources for the positions needed. To implement this strategy, and to balance supply and demand, the government needs to monitor and forecast the labor market.

Having valid forecasts of the demand for human resources in federal subjects (regions) of the country would allow the Ministry to develop plans for subsidizing students, find imbalance between the needs and resources of the regions, evaluate various scenarios, and find ways to achieve the goals, including finding the balance between supply and demand in the labor market.

The aim of the project

The aim of the project was to create a unified analytical system for:

  1. Analyzing the economic needs of Russia and its regions for skilled professionals.
  2. Assessing how the current subsidizing system corresponds with the future needs.
  3. Forecasting the optimal number of university graduates, and form subsidization plans for each of the 83 regions for various scenarios.

Solution:

As a part of the forecasting system development project, the dynamic models of the whole Russian Federation and its 83 regions were created using AnyLogic simulation software. The reason the developers chose AnyLogic was because it is user-friendly: no need for extensive coding, a lot of libraries with pre-defined objects, and the unlimited ability to widen the functions of the software by creating custom objects.

The system of the dynamic models can be found in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Dynamic Model System

This system helped to form the subsidization plans in 2012 and 2013, and now it is being used for further forecasting.

The results:

The developed system will help the Ministry to:

The advantages of the solution:

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