Academic articles

Real Options and System Dynamics Aproach To Model Value of Implementing a Project Specific Dispute Resolution Process in Construction Projects


This paper presents a methodology to study the effect of different resolution strategies on the value of the investment in a project-specific dispute resolution ladder (DRL) using option/real option theories from financial engineering, process centric modeling, and system dynamics methodology.

Hybrid Simulation and Optimization-Based Capacity Planner for Integrated Photovoltaic Generation with Storage Units


Unlike fossil-fueled generation, solar energy resources are geographically distributed and highly intermittent, which makes their direct control difficult and requires storage units. The goal of this research is to develop a flexible capacity planning tool, which will allow us to obtain a most economical mixture of capacities from solar generation as well as storage while meeting reliability requirements against fluctuating demand and weather conditions. The tool is based on hybrid (system dynamics and agent-based models) simulation and meta-heuristic optimization.

Decision Support Tool — Supply Chain


We present a currently developed Decision Support Tool - Supply Chain (DST-SC). This is specialized domain oriented tool, which is an extension of the general purpose, UML-RT Hybrid Simulation kernel of AnyLogic by XJ Technologies. DST-SC allows high degree of flexibility with respect to the supply chain functionality being modeled, has the ability to handle large complex problems, and offers highly reusable model components, offering at the same time ease of use by non-experts in simulation.

Using Simulation Modeling for IT Cost Analysis


In the old days, the price for IT services was formed in a pretty standardized way. Network services had an explicit usage price per Kbit/ sec. The range of provided IT services have been growing very fast and have reached new dimensions of complexity. From infrastructure pricing to web-enabled application availability and performance nowadays the old rules for defining service pricing is not applicable any more. Today it is difficult or sometime even impossible to associate the provided service levels with the cost related to the processes of operation, maintenance and the capital cost behind it. The old measures of dollars per Kbit/sec cannot be the right measure any more.

A Modern Simulation Approach for Pharmaceutical Portfolio Management


By creating an integrated simulation environment that models the underlying structure of a pharmaceutical enterprise portfolio it becomes possible to identify the optimal longitudinal allocation of finite resources across the constellation of available investment opportunities. The implementation of a hybrid approach that integrates multiple modeling techniques and analytic disciplines allows for a comprehensive environment that captures the underlying dynamics that drive observed market behavior. The implementation of an object oriented model structure constrains the models complexity by supporting dynamic re-use of both structure and logic.

Agent Modeling of Hispanic Population Acculturation and Behavior


In recent US Census data widely reported in the press “Hispanics” have become the largest minority group in the US. Using simulation modeling technology we look at some of the structural forces that shape the characteristics of the Hispanic population. The model creates a simulated Hispanic population whose level of acculturation to the broader population of which it is a part dynamically varies according to individual choice. The modeling technique used draws on both System Dynamic and Agent based paradigms both supported by innovative AnyLogic software. The representative Hispanic population is disaggregated down to the individual level as individual agents. Each agent makes choices stochastically as modulated by its current state and the outside environment that it is in.

Modeling General Motors and the North American Automobile Market


This article discusses General Motors’ North American Enterprise Model, a system dynamics model of the entire North American automobile market. The Enterprise Model takes a broad look across the corporation and its marketplace, combining internal activities such as engineering, manufacturing and marketing with external factors such as competition for consumer purchases in the new and used vehicle marketplaces. Eight groups of manufacturers compete monthly for a decade across eighteen vehicle segments, making segment-by-segment decisions about price, volume and investment.

From System Dynamics and Discrete Event to Practical Agent Based Modeling: Reasons, Techniques, Tools


This paper may be considered as a practical reference for those who wish to add (now sufficiently matured) Agent Based modeling to their analysis toolkit and may or may not have some System Dynamics or Discrete Event modeling background. We focus on systems that contain large numbers of active objects (people, business units, animals, vehicles, or even things like projects, stocks, products, etc. that have timing, event ordering or other kind of individual behavior associated with them). We compare the three major paradigms in simulation modeling: System Dynamics, Discrete Event and Agent Based Modeling with respect to how they approach such systems. We show in detail how an Agent Based model can be built from an existing System Dynamics or a Discrete Event model and then show how easily it can be further enhanced to capture much more complicated behavior, dependencies and interactions thus providing for deeper insight in the system being modeled.

Optimizing Freight Transportation Policies for Sustainability - A Simulation-Based Investigation of Freight Transportation Policy Planning and Supply Chains


Regional freight transportation policy planning is a difficult task, as few policy-planners have adequate tools to aid their understanding of how various policy formulations affect this complex, socio-technical system. In this paper, we develop a proof-of-concept model to simulate the impacts of public policies on freight transportation in a simulated region. We use the techniques of multi-disciplinary system design and optimization to analyze the formulation of regional freight transportation policies and examine the relative effects of policies and exogenous forces on the region in order to provide insight into the policy-planning process. Both single objective and multi-objective analysis is performed to provide policy-planners with a clear understanding of the trade-offs made in policy formulation.