Academic articles

A Hybrid Simulation Model for Large-Scaled Electricity Generation Systems


Due to the transition towards a sustainable energy supply, many electricity generation systems are faced with great challenges worldwide. Highly volatile renewable energy sources play an important role in the future electricity generation mix and should help compensate the phase-out of nuclear power in countries such as Germany. Simulation-based energy system analysis can support the conversion into a sustainable future energy system and are intended to find risks and miscalculations. In this paper we present main components of the electricity generation system models. We use a hybrid simulation approach with system dynamics and discrete event modules. This modular design allows quick model adoptions for different scenarios. Simulation results show the development of the future annual electricity balance, CO2 emission balance, electricty imports and exports, and the wholesale price of electricity.

Prospective Healthcare Decision-Making By Combined System Dynamics, Discrete-Event And Agent-Based Simulation


Prospective Health Technology Assessment allows early decision making for innovative health care technologies. In our recent publications a hybrid simulation approach with System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling has been presented. This paper presents a mechanism to generate agents dynamically from SD models and extends the previously presented hybrid approach by process-oriented Discrete Event Simulation for hospital modeling.

Modeling the Cycles of Gang and Criminal Behavior: Understanding the Social and Economic Influences


One of the challenges in developing policy for dealing with asocial behavior, such as burglary, vehicle theft, or violent crimes is the seemingly unpredictable rise and fall of activity. In retrospect these cycles in crime are often attributed to changes in factors such the size of a police force, level unemployment, or high school drop-out rate. What causes changes in these factors can some times be external to a local community, such as economic shifts affecting tax revenue, however many are internally linked. For example when crime is high, there is a call for more police and when crime is low, there is a justification for reducing the size of the force. Therefore, understanding how these factors are linked together as a whole may allow for better policies that reduce asocial behavior further and create more stability in the long term.

Large Scale Healthcare Modeling by Hybrid Simulation Techniques using AnyLogic


This paper describes a methodical and practical approach of hybrid model creation using the simulation tool AnyLogic. We focus on general modeling aspects and on advanced techniques using a Level-Based Architecture that help to develop large scale hybrid simulation models. An implementation of a stroke therapy use-case and its simulation results will be discussed. Finally, some practical ideas for validation will be outlined, as we experienced during the stroke use-case development.

A Complex Systems Modelling Approach for Decentralized Simulation of Electrical Microgrids


The structure and behavior of Electrical Grids share many of the properties of Complex Computer Systems, with microgrids and other decentralized electrical systems attached to them, so they can be interpreted as Systems of Systems. Furthermore, the evolution of the future electrical system will bring a higher degree of decentralization concerning specially production and control. To deal with this paradigm change, new models and tools are necessary. In this paper a model of an electrical microgrid is presented.

A simulation modeling approach for improving oral health outcomes of older adults


This interdisciplinary research focuses on improving the oral health of older adults as a means of enhancing their overall wellbeing and quality of life. Periodontal disease is a risk factor for other chronic illnesses, notably diabetes and cardiovascular disease. In order to identify policies that improve oral health for older adults, a dynamic modeling approach that considers community and individual level factors is utilized.

Modelling and Analysing Cargo Screening Processes: a Project Outline


The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is unknown as no benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturer benchmarks exist for individual sensors but we have not found any benchmarks that take a holistic view of the screening procedures assessing a combination of sensors and also taking operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role.