Academic articles

By creating an integrated simulation environment that models the underlying structure of a pharmaceutical enterprise portfolio it becomes possible to identify the optimal longitudinal allocation of finite resources across the constellation of available investment opportunities. The implementation of a hybrid approach that integrates multiple modeling techniques and analytic disciplines allows for a comprehensive environment that captures the underlying dynamics that drive observed market behavior. The implementation of an object oriented model structure constrains the models complexity by supporting dynamic re-use of both structure and logic.

In recent US Census data widely reported in the press “Hispanics” have become the largest minority group in the US. Using simulation modeling technology we look at some of the structural forces that shape the characteristics of the Hispanic population. The model creates a simulated Hispanic population whose level of acculturation to the broader population of which it is a part dynamically varies according to individual choice. The modeling technique used draws on both System Dynamic and Agent based paradigms both supported by innovative AnyLogic software. The representative Hispanic population is disaggregated down to the individual level as individual agents. Each agent makes choices stochastically as modulated by its current state and the outside environment that it is in.

Mathematical modeling is a relatively new but fast developing area of HIV studies providing researchers with an additional dynamical dimension in epidemiological work that allows scientists to simulate the consequences of various intervention and prevention scenarios. We illustrate these concepts by presenting a model that describes Injecting Drug Users (IDU) networks, injecting behavior and HIV/HCV spread within the networks. This individual-based (also called agent-based) model is used to investigate the impact of the introduction of Integralcannula syringes (ICS) instead of commonly used Detachable Needle syringes (DNS). Laboratory experiments have shown that ICS retain approximately 1000 times less residual blood (<.001 ml vs. 1ml) following injection and rinsing than DNS thereby decreasing risk of HIV/NCV transmission by nearly 100 times after 2 rinses.

Mathematical modeling is a relatively new but fast developing area of substance use field providing researchers with additional dynamical dimension in epidemiological work and allowing scientists to simulate the consequences of various intervention and prevention scenarios. We illustrate these concepts by presenting two models. The first model describes Injecting Drug Users (IDU) networks, injecting behavior and HIV/HCV spread among the networks. The size, structure of the networks as well as frequency of injecting and HIV risks were obtained from published literature on urban IDU networks. This individual-based model was used to investigate the impact of introduction of Integral-cannula syringes (ICS) instead of commonly used Detachable Needle syringes (DNS).

This paper explores the problem of fragmenting social networks enabled by spatial distancing between distinct socioeconomic classes. Such fragmentation is evidenced by the experience of urban sprawl without population growth. We develop a prototype model to examine the spatial dynamics of social network evolution in the face of neighborhood migration. This model draws upon the small world analogy by using an initial template of connections that are “rewired” over time. Spatially, connections are established for neighborhood proximity. Socially, connections are added based upon similarity of economic class.

The objective of this paper was to determine the effects of adding a healthcare provider in triage on average length of stay (LOS) and proportion of patients with >6 h LOS. The other goal was to assess the accuracy of computer simulation in predicting the magnitude of such effects on these metrics.

This paper presents a hybrid simulation model for the management of an eye condition called age-related macular degeneration, which particularly affects the elderly. The model represents not only the detailed clinical progression of disease in an individual, but also the organization of the hospital clinic in which patients with this condition are treated and the wider environment in which these patients live (and their social care needs, if any, are met). The model permits a ‘whole system’ societal view which captures the interactions between the health and social care systems

Due to the ageing of the world population, the demand for technology innovations in healthcare is growing rapidly. All stakeholders (e.g., patients, healthcare providers and health industry) can take profit of innovative products, but the development degenerates often into a time consuming and cost-intensive process. Prospective Health Technology Assessment (ProHTA) is a new approach that combines the knowledge of an interdisciplinary team and uses simulation techniques to indicate the effects of new innovations early before the expensive and risky development phase begins. In this paper, we describe an approach with loosely coupled system dynamics and agent-based models within a hybrid simulation environment for ProHTA as well as a use-case scenario with an innovative stroke technology

Computer simulation is a way to imitate business processes based on reality. Due to the fact that the environment in hospitals is highly dynamic with local autonomy of stakeholders participating in the business processes, we found an agent–based modeling and simulation (ABMS) approach to be most suitable and it is therefore applied in this context. From an inception to a running simulation, followed by an analysis of the output, we need to keep in mind our user’s physical problem as well as their capability of digesting the results. An interface between a computer modeler/programmer’s deliverable and a user like a hospital manager who learns from the simulated behavior of physical reality, is a visualization tool. We call this tool a “Learning Cockpit” (LC). Although a manager has experience in managing their business and they use personal qualities to positively drive their organization in challenging business environments, a simulation provides them additional support in decision process. With the help of simulation, they should be able to clearly and concisely grasp the information about the current operations, the resources involved and the inherent costs to get an output. They should be able to measure the performance of the current setup, and if necessary, make some changes and bring more value to the organization

The problem that we are going to conquer subsequently is a slight modification of the ARGESIM Comparison 17. This comparison does ask for the simulation of a SIR-type epidemic by means of lattice gas cellular automata (LGCA). At the end of this paper we will compare the outcome of such an approach with our ABS-result. The task is to model a SIR-type epidemic, an epidemic simplified in several ways. For example we assume a constant population over the whole simulation, thus no births or deaths...