Modeling of a Pharmaceutical Product Launch

One of the huge pharmaceutical companies employed Bayser Consulting for development of product launch strategy. Simulation modeling was applied for reconstruction of interactions between the company, doctors and patients.

Objective

Identify the optimal promotional strategy for an upcoming product launch and the corresponding sales. In particular, what is the ideal breakout between Direct-to-consumer advertising (DTC) and Personal Selling? Address specific questions such as:

  1. Does the client need a Contract Sales Organization (CSO) and if so, how large and for how long?
  2. How should the client reshuffle the current field sales plan to best free up primary position details?

Solution

The model included:

Figure 1. Screenshot of the Agent Based Model

Why Agent-based Modeling?

It is the need to take into account these factors that determined the consultants’ choice of AnyLogic, which is powerful at Agent Based Modeling.

Figure 2. Types of interactions between Agents

Outcome

The results of the project were:

Note on Emergent Behavior

The emergent behavior of a group is the behavior a group exhibits because individuals make different choices than what they would, if they were not a part of the group. What's more, the choices of an individual impact choices other members of the group make.

Figure 3. Emergent behavior of ants

The foraging path the ant colony ends up taking with depends on the initial decisions individual ants make. Likewise, the behavior of the group practice depends on and evolves with the decisions of individual physicians.

Conclusion

The Agent-Based Modeling module of AnyLogic is the platform of choice as:

  1. it allowed the modelers to answer all the questions they posed,
  2. it provided a close-up view of the dynamics of the group practice, and
  3. it was ideal for studying emergent behavior.

The model can be scaled up so the allocation question can be broadened to include payer rebates for improving access, in addition to DTC and Personal Selling.

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